Germany's BSI revises quantum computing study, estimating crypto-breaking devices by 2040 amid error correction progress. It warns of 'store now, decrypt later' threats and urges quantum-resistant encryption for data protection.
Germany's Federal Office for Information Security, known as the BSI, has released an updated version of its study on the state of quantum computing. The latest edition, version 2.2, suggests that a quantum computer powerful enough to undermine modern encryption methods could become a reality by 2040. Originally launched in 2018, the report evaluates the progress in building such systems and the algorithms that could exploit them for cryptographic attacks.
Much of today's digital security relies on public-key cryptography, which remains unbreakable with conventional computers based on current knowledge. However, the advent of sufficiently advanced quantum computers—termed cryptographically relevant—would upend this. Algorithms like the one proposed by Peter Shor in 1994 could factor large numbers efficiently, cracking these systems. The main obstacle has been the inherent fragility of quantum states, which are prone to errors from environmental interference and require complex error correction mechanisms.
Editorial Team
Recent breakthroughs are accelerating development. Researchers have successfully demonstrated quantum error correction in experiments, marking a significant milestone. Innovations in qLDPC codes, a promising approach to error handling, might even compress the timeline further. As a result, the BSI cautions that sensitive data transmitted without quantum-resistant protections today could be intercepted and held for decryption later—a tactic dubbed "store now, decrypt later." This vulnerability extends beyond data privacy to other security aspects, such as verifying authenticity.
In light of these evolving threats, the BSI strongly advises organizations and governments to transition to quantum-safe cryptographic methods without delay to safeguard critical infrastructures.
